Understanding the numbers
As we move forward in the new century, India (pop. 1,2 billion) will overtake China (pop. 1,4 billion) to become the world’s most populous country. While there is still vast poverty in both, the middle-class is advancing quickly to produce and consume a vast amount of products and services – and energy. Competition will be fierce in the global village, and future scenarios will be vastly different, even within a decade or two. Look for BIG changes.
Consider this:
* 25% of the population in China with the highest IQs is greater than the total population of North America. In India, it is the top 28%. They have more honours kids than we have kids.
* The brightest 10% of the people in China and India represent more than the entire population of any of the leading European countries.
* China and India are each generating more engineers and technologists per year than the US, and more than all the Europeans combined.
* China will soon become the number one English speaking country in the world. People usually guess that it is India – but China will overtake because they mandate English in school.
* If you took every single job in the US today and shipped it off to China, that country would still have a labour surplus.
Pop Quiz
In 1900, which country was the richest in the world, had the largest military, was the centre of world business and finance, had the strongest education system, was the world centre of innovation and invention, had the currency which was the world standard of value, and the highest standard of living?
Answer: England.
Now: Which country will have all those characteristics in the year 2100?
Robots in war
Experts have already issued warnings over the threat posed to humanity by new robot weapons. Consider this moral problem: In the future, will countries boast about killing thousands of enemy combatants without any casualties of their own?
The US Defense Department continues to invest heavily in robotic technology that will take the place of human soldiers in battle. Unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) have already flooded the battlefield. There are about 6000 robots in use by the Army and Marine Corps in Iraq and Afghanistan, and by October 2006 unmanned aircraft had flown 400 000 flight hours.
Currently there is always a human in the loop to decide on the use of lethal force. However, this will change: autonomous weapons are being developed, that will decide where, when and who to kill. It may not be long before robots become a standard terrorist weapon to replace suicide bombers.
This is the start of an international robot arms race. Many countries are working to develop robotic weapons, with the US having the biggest budget, expecting to spend an estimated US$4 billion by 2010.
Other countries too are working on robot weapons programmes – Europe, Canada, South Korea, South Africa, Singapore and Israel. China, Russia and India are also working on development of unmanned aerial combat vehicle. Where is this robot-race leading?
The optimists say that defence spending always leads to advances that bring technology to other areas. Who does not long for help with household chores? After almost five years, I am still using my Roomba vacuum cleaning robot. Affordable service robots will soon be able to do heavy, dirty, monotonous or irksome tasks. Watch robot-guru Rodney Brooks’ interesting video (http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/rodney_brooks_on_robots.html).
Jim Pinto is an industry analyst and commentator, writer, technology futurist and angel investor. His popular e-mail newsletter, JimPinto.com eNews, is widely read (with direct circulation of about 7000 and web-readership of two to three times that number). His areas of interest are technology futures, marketing and business strategies for a fast-changing environment, and industrial automation with a slant towards technology trends.
© Technews Publishing (Pty) Ltd | All Rights Reserved
printer friendly version