Water wars on the horizon
Oil has always been considered a cause of conflict. Since oil was discovered in the Mid-east, countries have squabbled over borders that would give them access to new riches. In Iraq today, many think that oil is the root cause of the war. Imagine the world's response if oil was suddenly discovered in Darfur.
In the future, something else will start taking over from oil as the likeliest cause of conflict. It is an ever scarcer and more valuable commodity: WATER. The fear is that as populations grow and development spreads, vicious battles will erupt between water-rich and water-poor nations, particularly in major river basins where upstream nations control the flow of downstream water.
The doomsayers warn that global warming will only make things worse by decreasing rainfall and increasing evaporation in critical areas. Our future will involve scarcity of water, though forecasts of vast deserts are a little too exaggerated.
Many of the arguments that have been applied to peak oil are also applicable to water. If the current rates of growth in supply and demand continue, then water will become a very scarce resource. When I was in India recently, there was a BIG strike between neighbouring states over new laws that changed water rights. As water becomes more and more scarce in populated areas, conflict will inevitably be the appropriate response to water shortages.
Are we heading for an era in which rivers, lakes and aquifers become national security assets that are fought over? With water availability shrinking across the Middle East, Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, violent conflict between states is increasingly likely. Major government agencies, including the CIA, have already raised the spectre of future 'water wars'.
Said Mark Twain: "Whisky is for drinking, water is for fighting over". In August 2007, experts from 140 countries will gather at the annual World Water Week forum in Stockholm. And the ghost of Mark Twain will be present as they debate the links between water scarcity and violent conflict.
The future is female
Here is some more 'futurology' for you - trends that many advanced companies are already considering.
British Telecomm futurologist Ian Pearson predicts that some 20 years from now, intelligent machines will do more and more of the kind of work that men do in business today. Women will provide emotional abilities that machines cannot. The more advanced technology gets, the more it makes us appreciate the types of human skills in which women excel.
Ray Kurzweil predicts that machines will soon have 'consciousness' - intelligence comparable with humans. When that comes, people will have a very different part to play; they will add the human element to business, getting close to customers on an emotional level. The result will be that women's role will become more important in business. The future will become a women-driven economy.
Technology already allows women to do jobs that previously needed male strength - like driving trucks, fire fighting, and even combat roles. Similarly, automation of intelligence means that neither men nor women will be needed in many future business roles in the information economy.
The social and emotional skills normally associated with women are harder to automate, and traditional management hierarchies will change drastically. Fewer managers will be required as computers take over - extrapolating the elimination of supervisory and management layers in the factory-based economy. Computers will coordinate the knowledge workforce. The remaining management jobs will mostly require female characteristics and skills.
Today, women achieve leadership roles when they show male characteristics. Tomorrow, men will become leaders only when they use their female side.
A workplace dominated by women could have negative side-effects. If men start to feel 'bossed' by women, they may start to look for other 'male' challenges. History suggests that when large numbers of men remain stagnant they start to blame other groups, and start wars. Unintended consequences.....
Jim Pinto is an industry analyst and commentator, writer, technology futurist and angel investor. His popular e-mail newsletter, JimPinto.com eNews, is widely read (with direct circulation of about 7000 and web-readership of two to three times that number). His areas of interest are technology futures, marketing and business strategies for a fast-changing environment, and industrial automation with a slant towards technology trends.
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