In the nineteen hundreds, South Africa built the country while strict sanctions were in place. Control instrumentation and other computer equipment were given codes to ensure the most powerful equipment did not fall into the wrong hands.
In the first weeks of February 2025, we have seen South Africa and its media go into a frenzy because of a USA executive order.
It was put in place because of race-based policies and aggressive action against USA allies − taking sides against Israel instead of the terrorist group Hamas, for example. The result was no aid to South Africa, and the promotion of the resettlement of Afrikaner refugees affected by government-sponsored, race-based discrimination. For a beggar-oriented establishment this is a disaster – no more money for free. Where else can we get money for free? Surely China, Russia or India will come to the rescue? Israel established a normalised economy within 25 years of a world war and the holocaust, but we have only been going for 30 years, we need the free money. For a results-oriented establishment this would be a motivation to get up on your feet and start working for a living. Leaders like President Paul Kagame of Rwanda have emphasised the importance of reducing dependency on aid by fostering local industries and improving governance.
What does this have to do with automation? There are currently no sanctions against South Africa initiated by the USA, but once this happens the country will be back in the nineteen hundreds and ironically for the same reason – the colour of one’s skin. Obtaining advanced automation equipment from another country like Russia, China or India is not that straightforward for two reasons:
• If the USA were to impose sanctions, it would likely expect other countries to follow its lead. South Africa’s industries are significantly dependent on automation systems from Western countries. Global trade is far more intricate than many South Africans realise, including much of the media. You may think that the USA and the rest of the world are enemies, but their trade shows another picture.
• Contrary to the beliefs of some uninformed individuals, you can’t simply shut down a plant and replace all the automation equipment with Chinese, Indian or similar alternatives. Production plants are highly sophisticated, and extensive research is involved in developing the control strategies used in these facilities.
Should the USA decide to place sanctions on South Africa, the first people that will be hurt are the less privileged, because the rest of South Africa would be able to cope with the higher prices for a while. But then factories will start to require maintenance. Ask Russia what happens when the USA implements sanctions. Because of the massive role the USA plays in international trade, not many countries have the resources to give it the middle finger and carry on as usual.
Let us review the performance of the current South African government. National government debt increased from $21,2 billion in 1988 to $311,3 billion in 2024.
Where does South Africa get its money from to pay back the interest on these loans? From trade – those countries that buy more from us than we buy from them. South Africa has trade surpluses with several countries, including the USA, the UK and Japan.
By openly defying the USA, the South African government has risked antagonising a nation that provides financial aid to South Africa and maintains a trade relationship where it purchases more from South Africa than it sells. This move also jeopardises relationships with other trade partners that similarly buy more from South Africa than they sell.
Additionally, a portion of the loans South Africa receives comes from institutions like the IBRD, IFC and MIGA, which are partially funded by the USA. As previously mentioned, global trade is complex and South Africa has just poked the bear. Will China, India and Russia suddenly start purchasing more from South Africa to even the loss of the previous team? If you believe that, I have an Eiffel tower for sale.
Now for some uplifting news: John Owen-Ellis and Kevin McElroy from the Durban branch, who have been integral members of the committee since its early days, have decided to step down from their leadership roles. Although they remain active members of both the SAIMC and the Durban branch, they have passed the baton to the next generation. This new leadership will undoubtedly benefit from the guidance of the remaining committee members, including the steadfast Jane van der Spuy.
Yours in automation
Johan Maartens
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