The best available scientific assessment of climate change is the recently released Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). It also makes for grim reading, detailing the devastating consequences of rising greenhouse gas emissions around the world, and the increasingly dangerous and irreversible risks should we fail to change course.
UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres called this report a “Code Red for Humanity”. The target is clear. Global warming must be limited to 1,5°, and carbon dioxide emissions must be zero by 2050 and reduced by 30 to 50% by 2030. This transition toward a net-zero economy is of momentous proportions. The pace and extent of its unfolding has simply no precedent in history: it has to happen within a time frame twice shorter than in the past, and on a global scale.
The IPCC also offers hope, highlighting pathways to avoid these intensifying risks. It identifies readily available, and highly cost-effective actions that can be undertaken now to reduce emissions and scale up carbon removal. How this can realistically be achieved is the main question, and despite a flurry of scenarios to 2050, the momentum is yet to come. Nothing has really changed yet.
This report is a contribution to this question and proposes an alternative approach. History reveals that what drives energy transitions is actually the way this energy is used and consumed. Energy transitions happen because new energy resources bring about positive changes in consumption patterns, or because new consumption patterns emerge and call for innovations in energy use. Energy supply has always chased energy demand. The only way to realise a transformation of the energy system of such magnitude is to design a transition which makes sense for the consumer, hence driving adoption rather than resistance – at an accelerated pace.
Our conclusion is clear: the best way to get to net-zero by 2050 is to modernise the economy at a rapid pace, building on innovations and behavioural changes that will support the climate change agenda. Would anyone have imagined back in 1990 that half the global population would today walk in the streets with 100 000 times the computing capacity of the guiding system that landed Apollo 11 on the Moon in 1969? How does this inform us about what to expect for 2050, when we will live in a different world. In this report, 12 key transformations are reviewed and their impact on the energy system modelled. These key transformations are all largely inevitable, as they bring considerable benefits to consumers in terms of access to services, convenience and quality of life.
The only question is the pace and the extent of their unfolding by 2050. Two scenarios are modelled:
• The scenario ‘New Normal’ essentially looks at the natural unfolding of such transformations in consumption, without further policy changes, and considering business as usual market conditions.
• The scenario ‘Back to 2050’ explores the extent to which a climate and consumer-centric policy shift can help reach the target of cutting emissions by 30 to 50% by 2030, on a course to net-zero by 2050.
The key finding of this detailed modelling is that a pathway to 1,5° is more feasible than we think. In the New Normal, we find that the economy, as it modernises, becomes less carbon intensive and decarbonises faster than often anticipated, albeit not at the right pace. By 2050, emissions in this scenario drop 30% compared to current levels.
In the Back to 2050 scenario, accelerating modernisation through a consumer-centric policy shift will help reach a net-zero economy. Final energy demand in this scenario drops 20% in industry and over 30% in mobility. The energy system electrifies, with the share of electricity climbing from 18 to 60% . Total electricity demand increases three times, and 20% of it is delivered by distributed solutions. The share of electricity reaches 80% in buildings and industry, and 40% in mobility − a different world. In 2050, there are still 5500 million tons of annual residual emissions, which are compensated by carbon capture, utilisation and storage.
If done right, a net-zero economy is achievable by 2050. It requires us to embrace the future with clear resolve. We hope that we can help steer the conversation toward the consumer side of the energy system and provide new insights to those who are building practical pathways to our common goal.
To view the full report visit www.instrumentation.co.za/ex/schneider sustainability report.pdf
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