A year or few back, just to see what I would find, I did a casual search on Google for 'when will oil run out'. What I discovered was moderately disturbing. Of course we all know that the oil reserves are finite - and will some day become too scarce, and thus too expensive, to use as fuel. Just when our oil reserves are set to dwindle is something of a debate. The disturbing bit, is that some are expecting us to begin feeling the pinch most severely within the next 10 years, some say longer.
After all the doomsday howlers we heard in the lead up to the Y2K thing, one begins to develop calluses on one's panic reflex. So one adopts a more reserved approach, looking for information from sources that have some track record of making reasonable observations ...
I have read Jim Pinto's 'Automation Unplugged' and strongly recommend it to those wanting to get up to speed on the big names in the field of instrumentation and control. The book is both entertaining and educational. Jim has had an excellent grounding, having 'grown up' in the game and become intimate with many of the levels. His familiarity with the industry and his passion for the bigger picture has suitably equipped him to be one of the finest observers of industry. I often wondered what Jim Pinto thought of the oil situation and how it would affect industry.
I happen to subscribe to Jim Pinto's eNews, (visit www.jimpinto.com) and the subject of oil has come up in a number of his news bulletins. Jim includes comment from other knowledgeable contributors that is very interesting. In one of these e-mails, concern was expressed over USA's energy independence as a strategic requirement. It seems that a time is soon approaching when synthetic fuels will become cheaper to produce than those extracted from natural oil reserves. Synthetic fuels are synthesised from natural gas, coal, tar, etc - these reserves are expected, by some, to last for centuries. As all this is bound to have some impact on SA industries, SA I&C asked Maurice McDowell to produce an article on the subject. The article is presented in two parts, the first of which can be seen at 'Is a world fuel shortage looming? What effect will it have on the industry? Part One - Understanding the problem'.
Petrol (worldwide) has only been as cheap as it is because it has been relatively easy to extract it from natural petroleum oil - so we should not be surprised when we notice oil prices beginning to rise, and to rise more rapidly in time. Understand that natural oil reserves are not in nice, clean tanks. Natural oil is in messy labyrinths and porous material under the ground. The closer we get to the dregs, the harder it gets to extract the bit that remains. Oil will not suddenly run out, but it will gradually become too expensive to be used as a fuel.
The local petrol price is affected by a number of factors that I will not pretend to understand. These factors account for the wiggles and bumps in the graph, but not for the steady climb that is looming. Once this climb begins, there will be no turning back. Has the climb begun? Watching the dollar price of crude over the next year may give an indication.
In the meantime there have been e-mails circulating, encouraging recipients to distribute the e-mail that is calling everybody to begin a countrywide boycott of a certain petrol vendor in an attempt to force it to lower its petrol price and so force a price war, in the hope that this would bring prices down for the consumer. People have no idea how spoilt we have been. Petrol from natural oil reserves has been an incredibly cheap and conveniently dense energy resource. As this becomes more scarce, no amount of boycotting will suddenly make it easier to get it out of the ground! Instead of ruining the lives of the local garage manager and his wife and kids, effort would be better spent thinking of sensible alternatives to petrol. The long-term issue is the greater concern.
John Gibbs - Editor
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