Futurist predictions – 5-10 years
Driven by the new paradigm that machines learn, reason and engage in more naturalised and personalised ways, several innovations are starting to emerge. These are enabled by cloud computing, big data analytics and learning technologies all coming together to bring valuable insights when most needed.
Omnipresent computers will keep getting smarter and more customised, helping to take on what may have been seen previously as unsolvable problems. The new era in computing will lead to breakthroughs that will amplify human abilities, assist in making good choices and help navigate the world in powerful new ways.
With a 30-year track record of accurate predictions, Ray Kurzweil is considered one of the world’s leading inventors, thinkers, and futurists. The Wall Street Journal calls him ‘the restless genius’; Forbes magazine says he’s ‘the ultimate thinking machine’; INC magazine considers him ‘the rightful heir to Thomas Edison’.
Here are the five ways Ray Kurzweil predicts our lives will change:
1. By the early 2020s, we will have the means to program our biology away from disease and ageing.
2. By 2030 solar energy will have the capacity to meet all of our energy needs. The production of food and clean water will be revolutionised.
3. By the early 2020s we will print out a significant fraction of the products we use – including clothing as well as replacement organs.
4. Within five years, search engines will be based on an understanding of natural language.
5. By the early 2020s we will routinely work and play with each other in full immersion visual-auditory virtual environments. By the 2030s, we will add the tactile sense to full immersion virtual reality.
To those who consider Ray Kurzweil too ‘far out’ and IBM more believable, here are IBM’s five technology predictions regarding what will change in the next five years.
1. Education: The classroom of the future will go from one-size fits all to learning about each student, providing each with a personalised curriculum from kindergarten to high school and on to employment.
2. Buying local: Savvy retailers will use super-intelligent technologies and augmented reality in the physical store to create experiences that cannot be replicated by the likes of Amazon.
3. Doctors will use DNA: Computers will help doctors to analyse individual DNA to understand the individual patient’s ailments and find the right treatment within days and even minutes.
4. Digital guardians: Security systems will acquire a 360-degree view of personal data, devices and applications. Patterns that could be precursors to cyber attacks or stolen identity will be stopped, while maintaining the privacy of personal information.
5. Sentient cities: Computers will learn to understand what people need, what they like, what they do and how they move around the city. Learning systems will create real-time understanding of how billions of events occur. Mobile devices and social engagement will enable citizens to develop relationships with city leaders to get attention not just at election time, but all the time.
As we approach 2020, what do YOU expect will happen?
Singularity – when computers become smarter than humans
Three years ago, the IBM computer Watson defeated two champions on Jeopardy, the TV quiz show. Just six months later, computer-driven automobiles were judged safer than humans and licensed to drive in Nevada. Google’s autonomous cars have now logged thousands of miles on American highways.
What’s next? Intelligent machines could rapidly design even more advanced machines and there is very little doubt that superhuman intelligence will eventually dominate. Ray Kurzweil predicts that machine intelligence will exceed human capabilities by 2045.
In his 1993 essay, ‘The Coming Technological Singularity’, San Diego State Math professor Vernor Vinge argues that the creation of superhuman artificial intelligence will mark the point at which ‘the human era will be ended’, such that no current models of reality are sufficient to predict beyond it.
Will there be a Singularity? On one hand, it could potentially solve most human problems, even mortality. Unshackled by human limitations, advanced life could eventually do amazing things beyond our abilities. On the other hand, it could destroy life as we know it.
The Singularity could be the best or worst thing ever to happen to humanity. Yet, largely, it is shrugged off. A common argument is that it hasn’t been scientifically proved that any disaster scenarios will occur.
On the optimistic side, digital technologies will in the near future diagnose diseases more accurately than doctors can, apply enormous data sets to transform retailing, and accomplish many tasks once considered uniquely human.
In their new book, The Second Machine Age, MIT’s Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee reveal the forces driving the reinvention of our lives. As the full impact of digital technologies is felt, immense bounties will result in the form of dazzling personal technology, advanced infrastructure and near-boundless access to the cultural items that enrich our lives.
A fundamentally optimistic book, The Second Machine Age will alter how we think about issues of technological, societal and economic progress.
Jim Pinto is a technology futurist, international speaker and automation industry commentator. You can e-mail him at [email protected]
Or review his prognostications and predictions on his website www.jimpinto.com
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