End of the traditional university
Publishing, music, shopping, journalism – all have been revolutionised by the Internet. Education is next. Now world-class tuition is free to anyone, anywhere in the world.
Within the next few decades, half of the colleges and universities now operating in the US will cease to exist. The technology driving this change is already at work, and nothing can stop it.
The future looks like this: access to college-level education will be free for everyone; the residential college campus will become largely obsolete; tens of thousands of professors will lose their jobs; the bachelor’s degree will become increasingly irrelevant.
Today, student loan debt is at an all-time high and tuition costs continue to rise at a rate far outpacing inflation. The college degree is already devalued and students keep defaulting on the debt required to pay for them. The persistent public faith in the college degree has kept demand high – but it’s fading fast.
An important part of the college story concerns the impending financial collapse of many private colleges and universities and the shrinkage of many public ones. When the bubble bursts, the system of higher education that has long been a culture of exclusivity will end. Then the college classroom will go virtual.
One has to recognise that online courses are not amenable to learning for all levels of students, and also the quality of interaction and learning is suspect. While each one of us learns differently, the general notion of learning – by thinking, asking questions and discussing with others – does not really exist online as it does in a real life classroom. This gives the traditional system an edge.
Will online education be as recognised as regular education? Today, the credibility is not the same as that from a regular university. But, the world of education is shifting. The way that all of us are getting information, knowledge and ideas is increasingly shifting online as a result of the online, information revolution.
What we know for sure is that thousands of students are signing up for online courses and that is a fact we cannot ignore.
Top disruptive technologies through 2025
What technologies will most radically transform human life in the next twelve years, to 2025? The McKinsey Global Institute has narrowed the most potentially disruptive down to a dozen. They are, in order of size of potential impact:
* Mobile Internet – defined as increasingly inexpensive and capable mobile computing devices and Internet connectivity.
* Automation of knowledge work – intelligent software systems that perform knowledge work tasks involving unstructured commands and subtle judgments.
* Internet of Things – networks of low-cost sensors and actuators for data collection, monitoring, decision making and process optimisation.
* Cloud technology – delivered over the Internet, as a service.
* Advanced robotics – increasingly capable robots with enhanced senses, dexterity and intelligence, used to automate tasks or augment humans.
* Autonomous and near-autonomous vehicles – driverless cars.
* Next generation Ggenomics – fast, low-cost gene sequencing, advanced big-data analytics and synthetic biology.
* Energy storage.
* 3D printing.
* Advanced materials – nanotechnology.
* Advanced oil and natural gas recovery.
* Renewable energy.
According to McKinsey, the mobile Internet, which could change the lives of more than 5 billion people around the globe, the automation of knowledge work, and the Internet of Things would have by far the largest economic impacts.
All together, the above technologies could generate $14 to $33 trillion. Much of that growth will be at the expense of older technologies and even entire industries falling into obsolescence.
Leaders must be prepared to disrupt their own businesses and make the investments needed to effect change. By the time these technologies influence the economy in 2025, it will be too late for businesses, policy makers, and citizens to plan their responses.
Nobody, especially business leaders, can afford to be the last to change.
Jim Pinto is an industry analyst and commentator, writer, technology futurist and angel investor. His popular e-mail newsletter, JimPinto.com eNews, is widely read (with direct circulation of about 7000 and web-readership of two to three times that number). His areas of interest are technology futures, marketing and business strategies for a fast-changing environment, and industrial automation with a slant towards technology trends.
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