Human-driven technological progress has largely replaced evolution as the dominant force shaping our future. Machines are rapidly becoming smarter than humans.
This sounds like science fiction, but consider the many areas where computers have already caught up with, and dominated, humans. Computers are better at classic games like chess, better drivers (driverless cars are safer), better at voice and face recognition and even better at the game Jeopardy, as IBM’s Watson computer showed. Today, computers do the majority of trading on the stock market.
Once computers can re-program themselves, they basically take over. The question is, how can you control something that actually reprograms itself?
Clearly, we are trying to harness super intelligence to work for us and succeeding. But, what happens when computer intelligence exceeds human intelligence?
Futurist Ray Kurzweil, considered by many to be a modern Thomas Edison, predicts that this will happen sometime within the next 20-30 years. That will be when my grandchildren are still in their early 40s; and my new grandson will be about 30.
Raymond Kurzweil has become well known for predicting the future of artificial intelligence and the human race. I have reviewed Kurzweil’s work and his books for over 10 years – since I started writing eNews.
His first book, ‘The Age of Intelligent Machines’, published in 1990, predicted the explosive growth in the Internet, among other things. Later works, 1999’s ‘The Age of Spiritual Machines’ and his 2005 tome, ‘The Singularity is Near’ suggested the development of Human Body 2.0 and 3.0, where nanotechnology is incorporated into many internal organs.
In his latest book, ‘How to Create a Mind’, Kurzweil predicts that new technologies will continue on the exponential curve, allowing humans to tie into the Internet through the brain’s neocortex within 25 years. He explores how the brain will be reverse engineered, and how to create even more intelligent machines in the coming human-machine civilisation.
Before you simply scoff this stuff off as futuristic nonsense, consider the opinions and reviews by technology leaders like Dean Kamen (inventor of Segway) and other eminent scientists. Marvin Minsky, highly respected co-founder of MIT’s Artificial Intelligence Lab calls it, ‘Kurzweil’s best book so far’.
Automation and The Internet of Things in the cloud
Over the past two decades, automation has improved the performance, quality and productivity of manufacturing and process systems. But performance remains at a plateau. Further improvements demand more data in real-time, beyond the processing capability of existing systems.
The Internet of Things (IoT) is about to transform the next decade. Literally everything will be connected to everything. Some estimate that 50 billion devices will be IoT-connected by 2020. The clock on the connected device transition is ticking very loudly.
IoT certainly will not bear fruit without ways to analyse all the data. Cloud computing is the enabler, the catalyst for that inflection point. It fundamentally changes how masses of data can be stored for interaction. It offers services on demand at the infrastructure, platform and software levels. Big data, the cloud and analytics combine to offer breakthrough productivity solutions.
Glen Allmendinger has been preaching the technology for more than a decade. He believes that ‘the biggest challenge will be finding enough new technology and industry players to develop all the applications required for this expanding opportunity’. That is the growth opportunity.
Cloud-computing technology is now at a maturing phase. Development of both private and public cloud systems has become a priority across a broad spectrum of commercial suppliers and users. Cloud services are becoming inexpensive and widely available.
Already in industrial automation, we are seeing applications of cloud computing to facilitate preventive and predictive maintenance, a major change-driver. This requires every possible machine parameter to be collected historically and analysed to drive intelligent decision-making; this is possible only with real-time analysis.
In addition to creating new markets and opportunities, cloud/IoT restructuring will overthrow many assumptions about who the industry’s leaders will be and how they will establish and maintain leadership.
The insightful Jeremy Pollard writes: ‘Definite-purpose devices have populated our software and hardware toolboxes for decades. The cloud might change it all.’
As the saying goes, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
Jim Pinto is an industry analyst and commentator, writer, technology futurist and angel investor. His popular e-mail newsletter, JimPinto.com eNews, is widely read (with direct circulation of about 7000 and web-readership of two to three times that number). His areas of interest are technology futures, marketing and business strategies for a fast-changing environment, and industrial automation with a slant towards technology trends.
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