The following is a summary of a recent article in The Wall Street Journal that got my attention.
The last century saw several transformations: electrification, telephony, automobiles, radio, electronics and TV and the dawn of the Internet.
In this new century, three grand technological transformations are led by America: big data, smart manufacturing and the wireless revolution. The era of near-perfect computational design and production will unleash as big a change in how we make things as the agricultural revolution did in how we grow things. It will be defined by talent, not cheap labour.
Information technology has entered the big-data era. Processing power and data storage are virtually free. A handheld device, the iPhone, has computing power that dwarfs the 1970s-era IBM mainframe. The Internet is evolving into the cloud, a network of thousands of data centres any one of which makes a 1990 supercomputer look like an antique. Astronomical feats of data crunching will enable previously unimaginable services and businesses. We are on the cusp of unimaginable new markets.
Smart manufacturing is the first structural shift since Henry Ford launched the economic power of mass production. We are just entering an era where the very fabrication of physical things is revolutionised by emerging materials science. Engineers will soon design and build from the molecular level, optimising features and even creating new materials, radically improving quality and reducing waste.
Devices and products are already appearing based on computationally engineered materials that literally did not exist a few years ago: Novel metal alloys, graphene instead of silicon transistors and meta-materials that possess properties not possible in nature; eg, rendering an object invisible.
This era of new materials will be economically explosive when combined with 3D printing, literally ‘printing’ parts and devices using computer power, lasers and basic powdered metals and plastics, soon leading to ‘printing’ of entire final products.
Finally, there is the unfolding communications revolution where soon most humans on the planet will be connected wirelessly. Never before have a billion people, and soon billions more, been able to communicate, socialise and trade in real-time.
The implications of the radical collapse in the cost of wireless connectivity are as big as those following the dawn of telegraphy and telephony. Coupled with the cloud, the wireless world provides cheap connectivity, information and processing power to nearly everyone, everywhere. This introduces both rapid change eg, the Arab Spring, and great opportunity. Again, both the launch and epicentre of this technology are based in America.
Few deny that technology fuels economic growth as well as both social and lifestyle progress, the latter largely seen in health and environmental metrics. But consider three features that most define America that are essential for unleashing the promises of technological change: with our youthful demographics, dynamic culture and diverse educational system, America will lead the tech-boom.
Solar energy is coming
Solar power has always had a reputation for being expensive, but not for much longer. It is largely down to economies of scale.
In 2011, enough solar panels were produced worldwide to generate 27 gigawatts, compared with 7,7 GW in 2009. Solar power is now cheaper than diesel anywhere that has reasonable sunshine. That means vast areas of Latin America, Africa and Asia could start adopting solar power.
In the US, the solar panel maker Solyndra received a $535 million federal loan guarantee which came from the stimulus package in 2009. The company was supposed to become an American success story of green-tech innovation and manufacturing. Instead, it became a high-profile casualty when it was evident that it could not compete against solar panels built by Chinese competitors with big government subsidies.
Despite the collapse of Solyndra, early investments in clean energy have begun to pay off. The US solar industry grew 69% in the last year, still representing the fastest growing industry in the nation. More than 100 000 Americans in all 50 states are employed by solar, more than US coal mining or steel production.
25% of India’s people do not have access to electricity, and those who are connected to the national grid have frequent blackouts. To cope, many homes and factories install diesel generators. But burning diesel has been linked to health problems, plus it contributes to climate change.
In India, solar electricity is now cheaper than diesel generators. This boosts India’s ‘Solar Mission’ to install 20 000 megawatts of solar power by 2022, and has implications for other developing nations. The solar ‘era’ is here.
Jim Pinto is an industry analyst and commentator, writer, technology futurist and angel investor. His popular e-mail newsletter, JimPinto.com eNews, is widely read (with direct circulation of about 7000 and web-readership of two to three times that number). His areas of interest are technology futures, marketing and business strategies for a fast-changing environment, and industrial automation with a slant towards technology trends.
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