Future vision 2020
Futurists keep predicting things that mostly never happen; well, lots of predictions fall far short of the mark. Dick Morley has a list of things that the Japanese predicted a century or more ago; some came pretty close (worldwide wireless telephone, global travel, warships in the air, picture telephone, horseless carriages) while others were wildly inaccurate (green Sahara, everyone taller than 6 feet, natural disaster control).
Prognosticators from just a decade ago again got mixed results: By 2010, some predicted ‘smellyvision’ – TV programs with aroma generating attachments, which has not yet appeared. People like Ray Kurzweil, who base their predictions on technology trends, keep making many accurate predictions; some of these became reality ahead of schedule.
In this spirit of futurism, let us see what some of the noted futurists and visionaries are predicting for the years leading up to 2020.
Over the next decades, the world will wean itself from dependence on fossil fuels AND drastically reduce greenhouse gases. To achieve this, major breakthroughs will be needed, and they will arrive. They will bring enormous opportunities. The ability to tap power from space, for instance, could jump-start whole new industries. Technology that can trap and store carbon dioxide from coal-fired plants would rejuvenate older ones.
These technologies present difficult engineering challenges and some require big scientific leaps in lab-created materials or genetically modified plants. And innovations have to be delivered at a cost that does not make energy much more expensive. If all of that can be done, any one of these technologies could change our lives significantly.
There will be widespread solar power (as it gets cheaper); we will live longer and will banish obesity (through fat-reducing pills); smart gadgets will not just be portable – they will become part of your body.
Between now and 2020 lots of new almost science-fiction innovations will become real for millions.
These changes will come as they did in the past decade, only faster, because technology growth is exponential. Kurzweil suggests that the next 10 years will bring advances which compare with more than the past century. In my opinion, he will not be far wrong.
Short-term technology advances
My own avocation as a ‘Futurist’ stems from my interest in technology, especially in the industrial automation arena which is where I have spent most of my career in business. I have expounded as keynote speaker at events and seminars around the world.
In June, I will be going to São Paulo, Brazil, to participate in the NEI International Industrial Conference & Show – Emerging Technologies, Challenges, Opportunities and its Impact on Manufacturing. My subject will be, ‘Prospects for automation and instrumentation on the plant floor’.
Before we go off on the next decade, let us look at some nearer-term predictions. From my point of view, most of these are technology related. The next wave of technology is coming fast, to change our lives further.
Parallel computing
This is already generating startling results, with breakthroughs in graphics, language translation and even facial recognition. Parallel computing is bringing enormous advances in speed and power for every kind of electronics, from videogame consoles to handheld devices.
Interactive holographic displays
These will allow real and virtual objects to be viewed true 3D. This will let architects evaluate virtual models, medical students view bodies, and show shoppers the look and size of products. Holograph displays with Wii remotes as motion detectors and a grid that produces ultrasonic sound waves will create an interface that allows people to ‘feel’ a virtual object when they touch the image floating in front of the screen.
New sensors to provide more real-world data
Today’s GPS has about a 10-metre margin; an array of GPS satellites developed by Boeing will be able to pinpoint people’s locations on the globe with much greater accuracy in future. There has been uproar recently about Apple and Google being able to track people through their cellphone locations.
Cloud-living
Soon you will not ‘own’ a computer (which will become obsolete after a couple of years). Everything you do will be cloud-based, manipulated with your iPad or smartphone. The owning-a-home dream will be gone, with value uncertainty and high job mobility. There will be a shift away from owning to renting or sharing. Why own a car? Car sharing will become common. Why own DVDs and CDs when you can stream videos and music whenever you choose? Community schemes, like Landshare in the UK, will enable growers to access landowners’ unused land.
Unitasking
Multitasking is becoming too much for everyone. Driven by cognitive burnout and stimulus overload, people will increasingly seek physical and mental space and web services to focus on a single issue. Hey, I am already retired so I just turn everything off when I choose (including my cellphone and iPad) and go listen to the birds chirping in the sunshine. I have got to tell you, it makes me happy!
Jim Pinto is an industry analyst and commentator, writer, technology futurist and angel investor. His popular e-mail newsletter, JimPinto.com eNews, is widely read (with direct circulation of about 7000 and web-readership of two to three times that number). His areas of interest are technology futures, marketing and business strategies for a fast-changing environment, and industrial automation with a slant towards technology trends.
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