Another year has ticked off on the calendar of the new century.
More than ever before there are new opportunities, challenges, dangers and possibilities. Already, in the first decade, the world is undergoing an epochal shift to a new era.
Demographics
Nearly 50% of the global population is under the age of 25 - the largest youth generation in history. The overwhelming majority of these young people live in the developing world. Most of them know about the quality of life in the West and most have seen and used computers and cellphones.
Global oil supply
Demand for oil is growing - from 79,8 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2003 to 84,3 mbpd in 2005, with China and India accelerating. Supply has already peaked - world oil production has stalled at about 84 mbpd, while demand has already exceeded that. Up to now, oil importers used mostly economic and political means to compete for oil, but countries will inevitably resort to military strategies soon. Indeed, many think that oil is the primary reason for US involvement in Iraq. Finding new energy resources is an imperative.
Species extinction
Humans continue to destroy other species at an alarming rate, rivalling the great extinctions of the geologic past. We are beginning to disrupt the vital functioning of ecosystems on which all life depends. The speed of species extinction has forced scientists to refer to the current era as the sixth extinction event, comparable only to five other events in the past billions of years. Most researchers say it is not too late to reverse the trend - but will humanity heed the warnings?
Climate change
Earth is already as warm as at any time in the last 10 000 years, and is within
1°C of being its hottest for a million years. Another decade of business-as-usual carbon emissions will probably make it too late to prevent northern ecosystems from triggering runaway climate change. Global warming may soon become a 'runaway train'.
Economic disruption
During 2003-4, for fear of 'deflation' the US Federal Reserve reduced interest rates so low (1%) that mortgage lenders began offering below-prime mortgages with little or no money down, and refinancing of existing mortgages sky-rocketed. Many loans had extra-low payments in early years with a substantial increase after the 'balloon' period. We should see a dramatic increase in mortgage defaults starting in 2007. This will be a major threat to the solvency of many banks. Unless drastically changed, the current world financial system will soon hit crisis-level.
Biotech and genetic engineering
Livestock cloning is common and the US FDA says cloned animal meat and foods are safe. How long before human clones and genetically engineered human babies become common? What are the social and societal impacts?
The 'perfect storm'
The breakdowns in multiple sectors will be exacerbated by increasingly sophisticated terrorism, serious global shortages of drinking water, growing population pressures, and the possibility of other shocks. The convergence of climate, oil and financial trends alone could produce a confluence of crises - a 'perfect storm' - that will change the future of humanity on this planet.
Humans are resourceful and even with accelerated change, new systems and technology will inevitably be developed to bypass the frailties of the old world. The new world will be highly interdependent and connected. The complexity of our present communications systems link individuals in ways that would have seemed impossible just a couple of decades ago. As the ability to interact in increasingly more sophisticated ways develops, humanity will begin to act more like an organism, rather than unrelated individuals and nationalistic groups.
Concepts and perspectives will infect the 'global brain' and produce behaviour never before seen. We will rapidly become citizens of this planet, and ecological interconnectedness will rapidly become obvious.
This futures discussion summarises some of the recent writings of John Petersen, president and founder of The Arlington Institute. John is the author of two acclaimed books about the future and has also authored 'The Road to 2012: Looking Toward the Next Two Decades', a book-length report used at the highest levels of American government as a basis for strategic planning.
Jim Pinto is a technology futurist, speaker, writer, industrial automation commentator, analyst and consultant. His popular e-mail newsletter, JimPinto.com eNews, is widely read (with direct circulation of about 7000 and web-readership about two to three times that number). His areas of interest are technology futures, marketing and business strategies for a fast-changing environment, and industrial automation with a slant to technology trends.
For more information contact Jim Pinto, [email protected], www.jimpinto.com
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