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The Jim Pinto column: automation majors - 2007 Pinto prognostications

March 2007 News

Most automation companies showed reasonable growth and profit in 2006, a turnaround from leaner years. Emboldened by better results, many of the majors are seeking new growth opportunities, and some good-sized acquisitions will occur in 2007.

In 2006 Rockwell divested Reliance, which was engaged primarily in old businesses such as motors, bearings and gears, and will utilise the money to fuel growth in new technology businesses. Honeywell and Emerson are doing fairly well and will likely acquire smaller companies that fit their wireless strategies, plus some larger mid-size players to strengthen their portfolios.

ABB is doing well consistently and its stock is climbing again. Now the company may fuel growth with judicious acquisition choices. Someone on the JimPinto.com weblog suggested that Rockwell (perhaps the old PLC business embodied by Allen-Bradley) was an ABB acquisition candidate.

After divesting the more profitable companies in the group, Invensys has recovered from its bout with bankruptcy. Foxboro, Wonderware and allied process controls businesses are now the central focus.

Aggressive French giant Schneider is busy buying many mid-size pieces, putting together its bid for significance in a fragmented automation marketplace. It is evident that, unlike Siemens' mishandled US acquisitions, Schneider is managing its newly acquired brood remarkably well.

The Japanese Omron and Yokogawa continue to look for growth and market leadership. Because the Japanese do not really understand how to make acquisitions, they will only attempt smaller buyouts, and most of their expansion will come through strong growth in the Far East.

By the end of this decade, look for the automation big-10 list to shrink to about half that size. 2007 will bring the first of the major buyouts to start the reshuffle.

Emerson & Honeywell battle for wireless turf

In January 2007 Emerson Process Management held its European wireless meeting in Bologna, Italy. Attendees reported that, though the programme was great and the attendance excellent, there was not much that was new.

The primary difference in Europe is that the 900 MHz frequency band which the Emerson wireless network uses in the US is not available in Europe - it is dedicated to emergency services. So, Emerson has now released wireless products in the 2,4 GHz band.

After attending the Honeywell European User's meeting in November 2006, Andrew Bond provided an excellent summary of Emerson's meeting in his UK newsletter 'Industrial Automation Insider', comparing the Honeywell and Emerson offerings (see http://www.iainsider.co.uk).

Honeywell is pushing for wireless standards (SP-100) and puts wireless in the wider context of plant-wide communications. Emerson has focused primarily on eliminating copper between control systems and field devices.

Both companies have adopted self-healing mesh-networks, but are deploying them at different levels. Honeywell's solution is based on a network of AC-powered iNodes, while Emerson markets battery powered field devices.

Honeywell claims that unpredictable loads can result in unpredictable battery life. Emerson responds that its mesh protocol monitors loading of individual nodes and avoids that problem.

For the skeptics who still may have had doubts at the Emerson meeting, a project leader for the BP refinery-of-the-future talked about successful trial runs of both the 900 MHz and 2,4 GHz products. He reported that much of the installation is straightforward and requires very little engineering or training for the wireless part; configuring for power management requires some thought, to assure adequate battery life; and the physics of the shorter wavelengths on the 2,4 GHz models requires some knowledge for setup.

While Honeywell and other suppliers suggest that site surveys are needed for reliable operation, Emerson insists that none are required. Emerson says that site surveys are often obsolete during the time between doing it and actual systems implementation - things get built, tank cars move, etc. When signal reliability is important under changing plant conditions, mesh operation helps greatly.

And the turf battles continue in this important new arena.

Stay tuned...

Jim Pinto is a technology futurist, speaker, writer, industrial automation commentator, analyst and consultant. His popular e-mail newsletter, JimPinto.com eNews, is widely read (with direct circulation of about 7000 and web-readership about two to three times that number). His areas of interest are technology futures, marketing and business strategies for a fast-changing environment, and industrial automation with a slant to technology trends.

For more information contact Jim Pinto, [email protected], www.jimpinto.com





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