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The Jim Pinto Column: Control's top 50 and my 2011 prognostications

March 2011 News

The Automation Suppliers’ Top 50 list has been published in the December 2010 edition of Control. This list is produced every year by Larry O’Brien, ARC Advisory Group, and Walt Boyes, editor of Control magazine.

In a fragmented and confusing business, all revenue numbers not related to automation have been eliminated, which provides a clear view of industry rankings. The numbers used are from 2009, which introduces a year’s lag. But, this is the only fair way, because companies release their full year results at different times. Based on interim reports, the 2010 numbers will show significant improvement.

Walt Boyes points out the effects of the recession: The USA market (25% of the world market) fell by 15% from 2008 to 2009, to $19,3B; the world market was down by 11% to $77,8B.

Here is my summary of the Global and North American Top-10, with some rank additions for clarity.

In North America, the top four (Emerson, Rockwell, ABB and Siemens) retained their positions and Invensys IOM returned to the USA Top 10 at number 9. World rankings showed no changes in the positions of the top six: Siemens, ABB, Emerson, Rockwell, Schneider and Honeywell ahead of Omron, Yokogawa, Danaher and Mitsubishi.

Here are a few of the mid-size companies I track; I expect these leaders to keep growing steadily in the rankings:

* National Instruments at 27 – the company is growing well in 2010 with revenues of $824M.

* Phoenix Contact at 14 – now more than double the size of its old competitor Weidmuller.

* Beckhoff at 45 – I am informed that the company grew globally to $450M in 2010, a growth of +46% vs. 2009.

* OSIsoft – global revenue was $162M.

* Ametek at 19 globally.

* Opto-22 got an honourable mention at $90M worldwide revenues.

Pinto Prognostications 2011

After the global downturn, most automation companies are growing again, primarily through international markets where new factories and plants are being built.

In US and European markets, the installed base of automation systems reaching the end of their useful lives represents a big opportunity. Automation suppliers have expanded their offerings for upgrades, in some cases plug-in replacements for competitors systems.

Here are my picks for automation technology that will make an impact this year:

Control systems security: After the July 2010 Stuxnet attack, automation systems security has become a critical issue. Security chips will now be in every switch port. Expect lots of new security-related offerings.

Industrial wireless: Some of the automation majors report sizeable wireless-related revenues, but these include accessories and support products and services; no large coups to brag about. Hopefully, the initial success will stimulate wider usage in larger projects this year.

Cloud-computing: This new arena is burgeoning in business environments. Even in industrial environments, growth is starting to emerge because of the growing burden of technology obsolescence, plus continuing support for rapidly changing software. All but the most critical components will be run ‘in the cloud’.

Diagnostics: Embedded operating information and diagnostics will be included in more new automation products and systems. Self-diagnostics will migrate into lower cost products, and will become an ‘expected’ standard feature.

Consumer technology adaptations: In a down market, with tight budgets, companies will look for adaptations beyond the same-old, same-old tweaks and extensions. iPad, iPhone and Droid applications will appear as new features and functions in many automation products. More diagnostics and service functions will be accessible via mobile phones.

The sleeping giants – robotics, vision, complex adaptive systems – continue to doze, with discernable, but still only incremental advances.

The international Top-10 automation lineup will certainly change, with mergers, acquisitions and divestitures. The question remains – which company is large enough to acquire whom? As China and India advance rapidly in the new decade, expect one or both countries to make major automation acquisitions to enter US and European markets.

Jim Pinto is an industry analyst and commentator, writer, technology futurist and angel investor. His popular e-mail newsletter, JimPinto.com eNews, is widely read (with direct circulation of about 7000 and web-readership of two to three times that number). His areas of interest are technology futures, marketing and business strategies for a fast-changing environment, and industrial automation with a slant towards technology trends.

www.jimpinto.com





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