Part 1 introduced global warming concerns and began discussing the nuclear power programmes of different countries.
The Russian nuclear power programme
Russia (the old USSR) was another early entrant in the nuclear power field with its first two commercial scale nuclear plants being started up in 1963-64. The first of today's production models were commissioned in 1971-73 and by the mid-'80s the country had 25 reactors in operation. Russia had developed two major reactor designs, one based on the military plutonium production technology (the RBMK) and the other based on naval propulsion units (the VVER). After Chernobyl there was a significant change in culture and Western assistance was used to address safety and design issues. Between the 1986 Chernobyl accident and the mid 1990s only one new nuclear plant was constructed in Russia but by the late 1990s exports of reactors to China and India were negotiated and the first Russian delayed plant was started up in 2001 boosting morale again in the nuclear industry. Of the currently operating plants most are of newer and safer design but the 11 RBMK reactors and the four first generation VVER reactors have serious design deficiencies. Six new reactors are under construction and a further 19 power reactors are planned or on order for commissioning from 2012 to 2020.
Russia now has a massive nuclear power plant programme that is expected to supply 25% of the country's electricity needs by 2020. From 143 billion kWh being supplied in 2004 this will become more than 270 billion kWh by 2020. Currently the country has 31 operating reactors totalling 21 743 MW. The growth in nuclear energy is essential due to increasing demand and the reduction in natural gas supplies. Newer Russian reactors are inherently safer and many make use of Western control systems. Five of the early reactors have or are being de-commissioned but many others exist in previously Soviet states. Russian-constructed reactors are operating in Lithuania (2), the Ukraine (15), Finland (2), Hungary (4), Slovakia (4), the Czech Republic (4), Bulgaria (6) and Slovenia (1). The reactors they constructed in East Germany and Armenia have been closed down because of the high safety risk. Having said that, safety has improved enormously in Russia. In 1993 there were 29 incidents rated level 1 and higher on a scale used by the industry. In 1994 there were nine and since then to 2003, just four.
The Chinese nuclear power programme
In mainland China the development of nuclear power began in 1970 and is now in a steady development period. Nine reactors are operational and a further two units are under construction. Despite the enormous power generation that will come from the Three Gorges project China predicts that it will need to increase its nuclear capacity fivefold by 2020. This is necessary as a result of its booming economic growth and exponential increase in demand for electrical power. Currently, most electricity produced in China is supplied by fossil fuels (mostly coal) at some 80%. China has, however, a problem, experienced by South Africa to a lesser extent in that coal resources are distant from the thriving coastal economies and other means of generating local power must be found. China has substantial uranium resources of its own and the country plans to become self sufficient in nuclear fuel supply.
China entered the nuclear power era later than many countries with construction starting in the mid 1980s and the first coming online in 1994. The first four reactors were standard French systems from Framatome with EdF managing construction. Qinshan-1 was the country's first indigenous reactor which reached criticality in December 1991. Somewhat disturbingly it was shut down for 14 months from mid 1998 for repairs. The latest reactors were of Canadian design with Atomic Energy of Canada being the main contractor. The two plants currently under construction are Russian systems with 1000 MW reactors and they will be completed during 2005 and 2006 respectively. It is interesting to note that these Russian reactors incorporate Finnish safety features and incorporate Siemens instrumentation and control systems. All the imported power plants in China from Russia, France and Canada are operated under IAEA safeguards. China already has a nuclear weapons capability (since 1964) and the new plants are focused on commercial generation of electrical power.
China is also South Africa's competitor in regard to pebble bed technology and has had a 10 MW demonstration reactor operating since 2000. It is satisfying to note that an intrinsic safety test was conducted in 2004. The reactor was shut down successfully without cooling and there were no failures with the fuel reaching a temperature less than 1600°C. Both China and South Africa believe that the pebble bed technology could eventually displace the more complex light water reactors.
China's use of nuclear energy is set to grow enormously despite other power generating projects such as the also controversial Three Gorges Dam project. This is set for completion in 2009 and will generate some 18 200 MW of power, the largest single hydroelectric scheme in the world. Although a renewable source of energy the criticism arose because of the mass displacement of nearly 2 million people. On the positive side however it will offset annual coal consumption by up to 50 000 tons and will be the equivalent of 10 large nuclear power stations. Although the Three Gorges has received most publicity China has another hydroelectric scheme under development on the Yellow River. This will commence operation around 2007 and at full capacity will generate some 15 800 MW.
In terms of Chinese Taiwan, it has four nuclear power plants, three of which possess four General Electric boiling water reactors while the fourth has two Westinghouse pressurised water reactors. The first reactor was commissioned in 1978 and today nuclear power provides about 40% of the base load. Two advanced reactors (General Electric) are expected to come online about 2010 and again with a fast growing economy there appears no reason why this energy-deficient country will not continue along the nuclear power option.
India's nuclear power programme
The country's nuclear power programme began in 1969 when two small boiling water reactors (supplied by General Electric) started generating electricity. Today, India has one of the largest nuclear power programmes in the Third World and places much emphasis on self-reliance. India also used Canadian technology but today has itself mastered the pressurised heavy water reactor technology. India currently has 14 reactors operational but they are all small (100 to 220 MW) and the total capacity is only 2770 MW. Eight reactors are currently under construction and are scheduled for commercial operation between 2006 and 2008 and will add a further 3960 MW as they include two 1000 MW units.
It is not the size of its current nuclear power industry that is important but its longer term plans. Until recently its ambitious programme was to achieve a target of 20 000 MW of nuclear power capacity by 2020. Following the recent announcement by the United States that it would assist India in its nuclear developments India now believes that this target could be increased to 40 000 MW. All of this activity is to allow India to achieve the targets set out in the Kyoto Protocol.
Emerging nuclear powers
When Iran restarted its nuclear programme in August it again declared that its objective was energy generation, not nuclear weapons. The government claimed that it needed nuclear power as an energy source to meet booming electricity demand. The gas and oil rich country also claimed that it wanted to preserve these valuable reserves for export rather than for electricity generation. Russia is assisting Iran in the construction of the 1 MW power plant. In terms of North Korea it would appear that the main objective of its nuclear programme (as with Israel and Pakistan) is to create weapon grade material rather than generating electrical power. However, we must remember that at one time that was also the primary objective of other countries (France, the UK and the Soviet Union) before they realised that nuclear energy could be used commercially. Other Third World countries that are generating electricity using nuclear power include Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and South Korea. Israel is known to have a nuclear weapons capability but does not generate any commercial power.
Advanced nuclear power reactors
If nuclear technology was on the way out then why would we see the continued development and improvement of conventional nuclear power plants? A recent article indicated that reactor suppliers in North America, Japan, Europe, Russia and South Africa (China for some reason was omitted) had a dozen new reactor designs at advanced stages of planning, while others are already at the research and development stage. Third generation advanced reactors have been operating in Japan since 1996 and France is now constructing two.
For the anti-nuclear lobbyist many of these designs incorporate passive or inherent safety features which require no operational intervention to avoid accidents. They also have:
* A standard design for each type thus reducing cost and construction time.
* A simpler and more rugged design which is less vulnerable to operational upsets.
* Higher availability and longer operating life (typically 60 years).
* Reduced possibility of core melt down accidents.
* Minimal effect on the environment.
* Higher burn-up to reduce fuel use and the amount of waste.
* Burnable absorbers to extend fuel life.
Nuclear power or higher environmental emissions
As for the environmentalists they want to see a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions but have failed to realise that potentially only nuclear power can address this problem, and that safe repositories can be found for nuclear waste. It is on record that France's carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation fell by 80% between 1980 and 1987 as its nuclear capacity increased. Germany's nuclear power programme is believed to have saved the emission of over two billion tons of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels since its introduction in 1961. It appears that we will have to put up with the growth of nuclear power if we are to reduce emissions as other alternatives do not meet the requirements of the burgeoning need for electricity in rapidly developing economies.
Like it or not - the nuclear power industry is here to stay if greenhouse gas emissions are to be dramatically reduced as the world demands.
Dr Maurice McDowell has many years' experience as a technical journalist, editor, business manager and research scientist. His third party analyses of world-class companies and processes, as well as his insight into industry and technology trends are well respected.
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